Dermot Murphy looks back on another tough year for Value investors. But could things be approaching a turning point? Dermot examines the extreme level of valuation spread in the market and the low valuations now on offer, which make Jupiter’s Value Equities team more positive on the outlook for Value than they have been for some time.

In this edition of Active Minds, James Moir looks at the reversal of some post-election gains in the UK market and asks whether investors are overly focused on backward-looking data. Paul Pulickal looks at whether financial credit is likely to continue its strong run into 2020, Colin Croft reports on positive progress being made in Brazil, while Antoine Hucher looks at three trends that are set to shake up the European payments sector.

Rhys Petheram, Fund Manager, Multi-Asset discusses the latest proposals for EU Ecolabels on green bond and equity funds.

Beef and poultry prices have soared this year following the unprecedented African swine flu epidemic in China.Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, explains how the huge pork supply loss from China that has resulted is likely to reshape the global protein market for years to come.

Risk and uncertainty are challenging, even multi-dimensional, phenomena in investment. While investors crave simple risk ‘metrics’ or statistics with which to know the risks associated with an investment or a fund, James Clunie, Head of Strategy, Absolute Return, explains that risk management involves art, not just science.

Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, has been positioning his strategy for the end of the economic cycle for some time. He explains why he is sceptical that US rate cuts can drive a sustainable rally, and why allocating to high-quality, liquid assets is more important than ever based on a number of recession warning signs.

Hair-raising headlines are par for the course in emerging Europe – but that doesn’t mean that it’s not possible to generate strong returns investing in the region. Colin Croft, fund manager of the Jupiter Emerging European Opportunities Fund, looks back over some of the highlights from the past five years since he took over the fund’s management, and discusses why even crises can present attractive investment opportunities for investors in emerging Europe.

In a never-ending quest to find an ‘edge’ over their peers, alternative data may prove the holy grail for some fund managers, says Magnus Spence, Head of Investments, Alternatives.

James Clunie explains why over the past five years to year-end 2018, the Jupiter’s Absolute Return strategy has been a worthwhile portfolio diversifier: it has generated a positive return, with negative correlation to the MSCI World Index, and has often performed well during periods of heightened equity market volatility.

Despite the breadth of investment styles found in the absolute return sector, a negative correlation to equities is still relatively rare. James Clunie, Head of Strategy, Absolute Return, considers why this might be so, and writes about how managing a strategy that is different requires resilience and has potential value for investors.

In his latest article, James Clunie explains why over the past five years to year-end 2018, the Jupiter’s Absolute Return strategy has been a worthwhile portfolio diversifier: it has generated a positive return, with negative correlation to the MSCI World Index, and has often performed well during periods of heightened equity market volatility.

The world’s technology giants continue to capture headlines, having grown to dominate large industries as the world becomes increasingly digitised.

Consistency is at the heart of Alexander Darwall’s investment process. Since joining Jupiter in 1995, he has become the company’s longest-serving fund manager. His steady approach has withstood all manner of market events, from the tech bubble to the financial crisis to the eurozone crisis.

We are not yet halfway through 2018 and already five of the holdings in the Jupiter UK Growth Fund have been taken over or received formal bid approaches: GKN, Zoopla, CityFibre, Virgin Money and Inmarsat. Given the fund only holds 37 positions, that is an unusually high hit rate, certainly the highest in any of the eleven years I have been working on the fund. Why has this happened, and can it continue?

We started shorting Campbell Soup in the strategy back in 2013 and I wrote about our short position in during 2014. Since then, the size of our short position has waxed and waned with our response to newsflows and the movement of the share price. We’re still modestly short the stock as I write, but the share price is much lower than before.

The unusually calm market conditions of 2017 have given way to the swaggering return of volatility and generally rising US Treasury yields. But Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income has believed for some time that the tide is set to turn and that the bull market in government bonds is far from over. Market conditions year to date have only strengthened his conviction. He explains why a prudent approach is now needed in an environment that is at a late stage of the business cycle and vulnerable to unforeseen shocks.

The US Federal Reserve might be too optimistic about its ability to raise rates three to four times this year. Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, examines the dynamics of the US rate environment and explains why he believes the end of the rate hiking cycle could be in sight.

After a hiatus in 2017, volatility appears to be back. Are recent tremors in markets a catalyst for change or yet another false positive? Looking at a range of stress indicators, James Clunie, Head of Strategy, Absolute Return, believes regime change could be afoot.